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20260623_RAG_Risk Assessment_HEAT_update_20260629
RAG
RAG
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Abstract
For the period 30 June – 5 July, lower minimum (range 13 - 16 °C) and maximum (range 22 - 25 °C) daily temperatures are forecast and no exceedance of the information threshold for ozone is predicted.
At present, neither the formal criteria for the alarm phase (NL: alarmfase, FR: phase d'alerte) of the Ozone and heat plan, nor those for the warning phase (NL: waarschuwingsfase, FR: phase d'avertissement) of the plan, are met.
However, the RAG notes that most heat-related deaths are not due to immediate heat stroke but are due to cumulative heat exposure and resulting physiological effects (dehydration; exhaustion; cardiovascular, respiratory or renal decompensation) which can take time (24 to 96 hours) to materialise. In the 2020 heatwave, which is the only prior occasion during which the alarm phase of the plan was activated, significant excess mortality was observed up to three days after the last day of the warning phase.
Taking these considerations into account, the RAG advices to scale down to the warning phase of the Ozone and heat plan. On Thursday July 2, a further scaling down to the vigilance phase (NL: waakzaamheidsfase, FR: phase de vigilance) is expected if current meteorological forecasts and air quality predictions are maintained.
The RAG emphasises that attention for those most vulnerable, most exposed and/or least able to adapt remains important, with particular attention for hydration. It is crucial to ventilate buildings during the night to accelerate the cooling down process and reduce the cumulative heat burden. Prolonged pressure on emergency services cannot be excluded.
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2026-07-02
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Sciensano
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public health #22444#